{"id":212298,"date":"2026-10-20T07:24:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T07:24:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/jpmorgan-bitcoin-long-term-forecast-ten-percent-annual-return\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T07:24:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T07:24:26","slug":"jpmorgan-bitcoin-long-term-forecast-ten-percent-annual-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/jpmorgan-bitcoin-long-term-forecast-ten-percent-annual-return\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6469\u6839\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u9996\u53d1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u5e74\u5316\u56de\u62a5\u7387 10% \u51a0\u7edd\u4e3b\u6d41\u8d44\u4ea7"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6469\u6839\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\uff08JPMorgan Asset Management\uff09\u9996\u6b21\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u8d44\u4ea7\u5728\u672a\u6765 10 \u5230 15 \u5e74\u5185\u7684\u5e74\u590d\u5408\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 <b>10%<\/b>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u76d8\u80a1\u3001\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4fe1\u6258\u57fa\u91d1\uff08REITs\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6210\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u6a21\u578b\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u3002<\/p><p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u4e8e 10 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u7b2c 31 \u7248\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u2014\u2014\u300a2027 \u5e74\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bbe\u300b\uff082027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions\uff09\u4e2d\u3002\u8be5\u5c55\u671b\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86 200 \u591a\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6218\u7565\u6295\u8d44\u89c4\u5212\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u672a\u6765 10 \u5230 15 \u5e74\u7684\u9884\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p><p>\u5728\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e2d\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86 10% \u7684\u5e74\u590d\u5408\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u76d8\u80a1\u4e3a 7.5%\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4fe1\u6258\u57fa\u91d1\u4e3a 8.2%\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5219\u4e3a 5.5%\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u9884\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u6bd4\u5927\u76d8\u80a1\u9ad8\u51fa 2.5 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u6bd4 REITs \u9ad8\u51fa 1.8 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u6bd4\u9ec4\u91d1\u9ad8\u51fa 4.5 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2026\/10\/content-img-1-24.jpg\" alt=\"JPMorgan Bitcoin\"><\/figure><p>Bitwise \u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98 Matt Hougan \u8f6c\u53d1\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u7684\u9884\u8ba1\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a 7.7%\u3002Matt Hougan \u5c06\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff1b\u800c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5219\u5f3a\u8c03\u8fd9\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u7814\u5224\u3002<\/p><p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u5951\u5408\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u754c\u5728\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u56f4\u7ed5\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u5f00\u5c55\u7684\u673a\u6784\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u662f\u8be5\u884c\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927\u52a0\u5bc6\u76f8\u5173\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u53c8\u4e00\u4f8b\u8bc1\u3002<\/p><h2>10% \u7684\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4f34\u968f 55% \u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>\u9ad8\u56de\u62a5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u8bbe\u5b9a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e3a <b>55%<\/b>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5927\u7ea6\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u76d8\u80a1\uff08\u7ea6 18%\uff09\u548c\u9ec4\u91d1\uff08\u7ea6 17.2%\uff09\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u3002<\/p><p>\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 20.9% \u7684\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u3002\u7b97\u672f\u56de\u62a5\u662f\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u800c\u590d\u5408\u56de\u62a5\u5219\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u5185\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 10% \u7684\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f\u6570\u5b57\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u4ef7\u503c\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u66f4\u5177\u53c2\u8003\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/wp-content\/themes\/cryptonews\/images\/p\/no_image.svg\" alt=\"JPMorgan Bitcoin\" class=\" lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2026\/10\/content-img-2-5.jpg\" data-srcset=\"\"><\/figure><p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8d44\u4ea7\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5267\u70c8\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u4e8f\u635f\u4f1a\u7f29\u51cf\u8d44\u672c\u57fa\u6570\uff0c\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5fc5\u987b\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u66f4\u5f3a\u52b2\u624d\u80fd\u6536\u590d\u5931\u5730\u3002\u6309\u7167 10% \u7684\u6052\u5b9a\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u5728 10 \u5e74\u5185\u5c06\u7ffb\u7ea6 2.59 \u500d\uff0c\u5728 15 \u5e74\u5185\u5c06\u7ffb\u7ea6 4.18 \u500d\u3002<\/p><p>\u56de\u62a5\u6f5c\u529b\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u590d\u5229\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u89e3\u8bfb\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6982\u51b5\u8fd8\u4e0e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6761\u4ef6\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u4ef7\u503c\u5b58\u50a8\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u80c3\u53e3\u3002<\/p><h2>\u4e3a\u4f55\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ecd\u672a\u8fdb\u5165\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u5206\u914d\u6a21\u578b\uff1f<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u5c1a\u672a\u5c06\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7eb3\u5165\u5176\u6784\u5efa\u957f\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u77e9\u9635\u4e2d\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u77e9\u9635\uff0c\u5c06\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u9009\u5b9a\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u4ea7\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p><p>\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u77e9\u9635\u7528\u4e8e\u4f30\u7b97\u8d44\u4ea7\u56de\u62a5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ecf\u7406\u8bc4\u4f30\u591a\u5143\u5316\u6548\u679c\u548c\u7efc\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u662f\u5c06\u5176\u7eb3\u5165\u4e3b\u6d41\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u969c\u788d\u3002<\/p><p>\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u672a\u89c4\u5b9a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u533a\u5206\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6784\u5efa\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u56de\u62a5\u4e0a\u6392\u540d\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5176\u98ce\u9669\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u65ad\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u6218\u7565\u7ec4\u5408\u914d\u7f6e\u65f6\u4f9d\u7136\u9762\u4e34\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p><p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u77db\u76fe\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u673a\u6784\u914d\u7f6e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 ETF \u6301\u7eed\u6d41\u51fa\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u5047\u8bbe\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u53ca\u6267\u884c\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p><p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u7531 60% \u80a1\u7968\u548c 40% \u503a\u5238\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5e74\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a 7%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u5305\u542b 30% \u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\u66ff\u4ee3\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5177\u4f53\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230 7.5%\u3002<\/p><p>\u8be5\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u673a\u6784\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u63d0\u5347\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u57fa\u4e8e\u622a\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 9 \u6708 30 \u65e5\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u66f4\u65b0\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4e3a\u957f\u671f\u89c4\u5212\u63d0\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6469\u6839\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u5728\u5176 2027 \u5e74\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bbe\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u672a\u6765 10-15 \u5e74\u7684\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a 10%\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u80a1\u5927\u76d8\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":212295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[392],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-212298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-amanda-wong"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u6469\u6839\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u9996\u53d1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u5e74\u5316\u56de\u62a5\u7387 10% \u51a0\u7edd\u4e3b\u6d41\u8d44\u4ea7<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u6469\u6839\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u5728\u5176 2027 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