{"id":419945,"date":"2024-05-18T01:48:09","date_gmt":"2024-05-18T00:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=419945"},"modified":"2024-05-18T01:48:09","modified_gmt":"2024-05-18T00:48:09","slug":"coinbase-expects-30-to-40-chance-of-spot-eth-etf-approval-by-month-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coinbase-expects-30-to-40-chance-of-spot-eth-etf-approval-by-month-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Coinbase expects 30% to 40% chance of spot ETH ETF approval by month-end"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crypto exchange Coinbase<\/a> believes the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum<\/a> ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%.<\/p>\n

In a May 15<\/a> report, Coinbase Institutional Research Analyst David Han asserted that the main factor that led the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs \u2014<\/span><\/span> the correlation between CME futures product and spot exchange rates \u2014<\/span><\/span> could also lead it to approve spot Ethereum ETFs.<\/p>\n

Han said there is “room for surprise to the upside on this decision,” both on prediction markets and in the fact that Grayscale Ethereum Trust is trading at a 24% discount.<\/p>\n

He conceded that the SEC's silence has caused “uncertainty” and that spot ETH ETFs that specifically aim to engage in ETH staking are unlikely to gain approval.<\/p>\n

Politics one possible factor<\/h2>\n

Coinbase is optimistic in part because of crypto's key role in US politics. Han said that the SEC will spend political capital by denying spot ETH ETFs, a strategy that Coinbase believes is uncertain.<\/p>\n

Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams echoed that sentiment, stating that expectations for approval were low until Democrats “caught wind their anti-crypto SEC chair could lose them an election.”<\/p>\n

Neither individual described any specific political developments. However, recent surveys show that<\/a> crypto owners slightly favor Trump over Biden. Uniswap founder Hayden Adams has described<\/a> crypto as a Republican rallying point in contrast to the Biden administration's regulatory approach.<\/p>\n

SEC Chair Gensler and two other voting commissioners are Democrats, while another two voting commissioners are Republicans, giving the agency both Democratic leadership and majority.<\/p>\n

Approval could be delayed<\/h2>\n

Han noted that the SEC does not need to approve all spot applications at once.<\/p>\n

Each spot ETH ETF application has a different decision deadline. The SEC must decide on VanEck's application first by May 23 but can decide on BlackRock and Fidelity's applications as late as August.<\/p>\n

Han also argued that a May rejection 23 could lead to legal action that reverses the decision.<\/p>\n

In January, SEC chair Gary Gensler cited a lawsuit from Grayscale over the proposed conversion of GBTC as one factor in the agency's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, Grayscale has not stated that it will file a similar lawsuit around spot ETH ETFs.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg's Balchunas responds<\/h2>\n

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas<\/a> commented on Coinbase's contrarian and optimistic stance, writing:<\/p>\n

“It's like a way out of the money call option to give themselves notoriety if off chance it happens. No harm if they wrong. Risk-free PR move.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He concluded that predictions from himself and his colleagues are “braver and riskier reputationally than… [last minute random] contrarian calls.”<\/p>\n

Balchunas posted a low estimate on May 14, when he said the odds of spot ETH ETF approvals are “slim to none.” In late March, he predicted “very pessimistic” 25% approval odds.<\/p>\n

Crowd-sourced estimates provide similarly low odds. At the time of writing, Polymarket odds of approval were 10%, down from 16% at the time of Coinbase's report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crypto exchange Coinbase believes the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%. In a May 15 report, Coinbase Institutional Research Analyst David Han asserted that the main factor that led the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs \u2014 the correlation between CME futures […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1403,"featured_media":387195,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[78665,77968,11],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCoinbase expects 30% to 40% chance of spot ETH ETF approval by month-end<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coinbase projected 30% to 40% odds that the US SEC will approve a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of the month.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coinbase-expects-30-to-40-chance-of-spot-eth-etf-approval-by-month-end\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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