{"id":505107,"date":"2025-10-31T09:58:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T09:58:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=505107"},"modified":"2025-10-31T15:42:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T15:42:52","slug":"here-is-why-bitcoin-registered-its-first-red-october-in-7-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/here-is-why-bitcoin-registered-its-first-red-october-in-7-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Here is why Bitcoin registered its first red October in 7 years"},"content":{"rendered":"

For more than a decade, October has been one of Bitcoin's<\/a> easiest months to be bullish.<\/p>\n

Historically, it has delivered average gains of about 22.5%, helped by post-summer liquidity, year-end portfolio positioning, and, more recently, steady demand from US investment products.<\/p>\n

As a result, confidence in that pattern was high again this year. And true to form, Bitcoin set a new record above $126,000<\/a> in the first week of the month as traders quickly revived the familiar “Uptober” slogan.<\/p>\n

However, a flash sell-off erased those early gains<\/a> within days, and unlike tech stocks and other risk assets, Bitcoin never recovered its value.<\/p>\n

This resulted in the month closing lower, the meme failing, and the market was reminded that slogans don't absorb supply.<\/p>\n

Echoes of 2018<\/h2>\n

What makes this October notable is how closely it rhymes with 2018.<\/p>\n

Back then, October didn't collapse as it simply stopped rallying. Once that usual seasonal tailwind faded, November and December turned sharply lower, with Bitcoin losing more than 36% in November alone.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Monthly Returns From 2013 Till Date (Source: CoinGlass<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The takeaway was simple: when a historically strong month fails to lift prices, underlying weakness is already in play. That weakness can stem from excess supply, fading demand, or even tighter macroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n

This year carries a similar undertone. The calendar didn't stop working. Instead, the market came into October exhausted.<\/p>\n

After a strong first three quarters, traders were heavily positioned, liquidity was uneven, and long-term holders began taking profits into every sign of strength.<\/p>\n

Why did Bitcoin price fall in October?<\/h2>\n

On-chain data explains most of why the Bitcoin price struggled in October.<\/p>\n

Data<\/a> from the blockchain analytics platform Glassnode<\/a> showed that long-term BTC holders<\/a> have been steadily spending coins since mid-July, increasing realized selling from approximately $1 billion a day to between $2 billion and $3 billion a day by early October.<\/p>\n

It noted:<\/p>\n

“Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m\u201312m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure\u2014especially during the late stages of the top formation. Around the $126,000 ATH, their spending exceeded $648M\/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Selling (Source: Glassnode)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Crucially, this distribution was not a panic spike like prior capitulation events. It was gradual, persistent, selling into every show of strength.<\/p>\n

According to the firm, many of the coins originated from wallets that had been purchased for between $70,000 and $96,000, resulting in an average cost of nearly $93,000.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Holders Realized Price (Source: Glassnode)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This suggests that the move looks more like profit-taking after a strong year rather than a fear of a downturn.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Bitcoin's poor performance was compounded by the fact that its buy side significantly thinned out in October.<\/p>\n

In its weekly report, crypto analytical platform CryptoQuant noted<\/a> a noticeable slowdown in US investor appetite across spot markets, ETFs, and futures following the late-September rally.<\/p>\n

Indeed, ETF inflows<\/a> cooled significantly to less than 1,000 BTC\/day, which was considerably lower than the average of over 2,500 BTC\/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin ETFs Netflow (Source: CryptoQuant)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Additionally, spot exchange premiums narrowed, and the futures basis retreated.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium (Source: CryptoQuant)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Moreno noted that these were signals that the marginal US buyer stepped back right when long-term holders stepped up their selling.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the macro backdrop also amplified the drag.<\/p>\n

This year has been dominated by trade frictions\u2014especially between the US and China<\/a>\u2014and flare-ups in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve has also continued to signal a restrictive policy stance, maintaining tight global dollar liquidity.<\/p>\n

Considering all of this, research platform Kronos framed<\/a> the October pullback as a “liquidity strain, not a trend break,” noting that Bitcoin still behaved as a relative flight-to-safety asset even as leveraged longs were flushed out.<\/p>\n

What's next for BTC?<\/h2>\n

The uncomfortable parallel for bulls is that the last red October preceded a difficult year-end.<\/p>\n

In 2018, the loss of seasonal support was followed by thinner liquidity, more decisive long-term holder distribution, and buyers waiting several legs lower.<\/p>\n

However, today's market is healthier because the investor base is deeper, stablecoin liquidity is larger, and regulated products now provide a slower, steadier bid that simply did not exist seven years ago.<\/p>\n

Considering this, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, described the current setup as a market that is “recalibrating, not collapsing,” adding that institutional accumulation continues beneath the surface as long as Bitcoin holds above the $107,000\u2013$110,000 zone.<\/p>\n

Even so, the October print changes the conversation. When Bitcoin cannot rally in the month it usually rallies, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls.<\/p>\n

The final two months of the year are likely to be defined less by memes about Uptober and more by whether long-term holder spending cools back toward $1 billion a day and whether US ETF flows reaccelerate.<\/p>\n

If supply stays heavy and the regulated bid stays light, 2025 could echo 2018 with a choppy, frustrating finish to the year. However, if flows return and geopolitics calm, October may end up looking less like the start of a slide and more like a brief, orderly handoff from older holders to new ones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For more than a decade, October has been one of Bitcoin’s easiest months to be bullish. Historically, it has delivered average gains of about 22.5%, helped by post-summer liquidity, year-end portfolio positioning, and, more recently, steady demand from US investment products. As a result, confidence in that pattern was high again this year. And true […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":720,"featured_media":505129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,77911,79312,15323,6849],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin sees 'Uptober' collapse as seasonal rally fades<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"October's sell-off mirrored 2018 as long-term Bitcoin holders took profits, dampened by reduced new buying pressure.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/here-is-why-bitcoin-registered-its-first-red-october-in-7-years\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Here is why Bitcoin registered its first red October in 7 years\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"October's sell-off mirrored 2018 as long-term Bitcoin holders took profits, dampened by reduced new buying pressure.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/here-is-why-bitcoin-registered-its-first-red-october-in-7-years\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CryptoSlate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-31T09:58:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-31T15:42:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/bitcoin-autumn-down-.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/here-is-why-bitcoin-registered-its-first-red-october-in-7-years\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/here-is-why-bitcoin-registered-its-first-red-october-in-7-years\/\"},\"author\":{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/#person\",\"name\":\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/#authorimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/profile-oluwapelumi-adejumo-1-300x300.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/profile-oluwapelumi-adejumo-1-300x300.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\"},\"jobTitle\":\"Senior Reporter\",\"description\":\"Oluwapelumi values Bitcoin's potential. 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