{"id":518587,"date":"2026-02-06T09:50:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T09:50:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=518587"},"modified":"2026-02-09T09:26:54","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T09:26:54","slug":"as-bitcoin-sinks-to-60k-btc-treasury-companies-go-10-billion-underwater-and-one-major-firm-is-bracing-for-a-27-billion-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/as-bitcoin-sinks-to-60k-btc-treasury-companies-go-10-billion-underwater-and-one-major-firm-is-bracing-for-a-27-billion-disaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin collapse sends BTC treasuries $10B underwater as one major firm braces for a $27B disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin's (BTC) slide to as low as $60,233 overnight, before recovering somewhat to $65,443, has left most of the largest pure-play Bitcoin treasury companies deeply underwater on their holdings, with combined unrealized losses approaching $10 billion across eight entities that collectively control more than 850,000 BTC.<\/p>\n<p>The reckoning hits hardest at the top. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 713,502 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,047 per coin, resulting in an unrealized loss of $6.85 billion at current prices.<\/p>\n<p>That's a 12.6% drawdown on a treasury worth $47.4 billion at spot, but the company's scale means every $1,000 move in Bitcoin's price swings its paper position by $713.5 million.<\/p>\n<p>Metaplanet, the Japanese hotel firm turned Bitcoin accumulator, sits $1.45 billion underwater on 35,102 BTC acquired at an average of $107,716. Its 38.3% unrealized loss reflects the timing risk associated with late-2024 and early-2025 purchases made near all-time highs.<\/p>\n<p>Twenty One Capital reports a $906.7 million paper loss on 43,514 BTC purchased at $87,280.37, leaving it 23.9% underwater. The value considered is derived from a July 29, 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/1865602\/000121390025068460\/ea025053801ex99-1_cantor.htm\">filing<\/a> with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n<p>The dataset, sourced from Bitcoin Treasuries, tracks only companies whose business model centers exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/coinbase\/\">Coinbase<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/tesla\/\">Tesla<\/a>, and other firms with diversified operations don't qualify, making this a pure test of conviction versus cost basis.<\/p>\n<p>Seven of the eight names analyzed are currently underwater. The sole exception is Next, which purchased 5,833 BTC at $35,670.09 and still holds an unrealized gain of 86.3% ($179.5 million).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_518589\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-518589\" style=\"width: 2047px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-518589 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_Q5JXTYJ0U8.jpg\" alt=\"Underwater leaderboard\" width=\"2047\" height=\"940\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_Q5JXTYJ0U8.jpg 2047w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_Q5JXTYJ0U8-300x138.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_Q5JXTYJ0U8-1024x470.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_Q5JXTYJ0U8-768x353.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_Q5JXTYJ0U8-1536x705.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2047px) 100vw, 2047px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-518589\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bar chart showing unrealized profit and loss positions for eight pure Bitcoin treasury companies at $66,443.75 BTC spot price, with Strategy leading losses at negative $6.85 billion.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>The mNAV compression risk<\/h2>\n<p>Market-to-net-asset-value ratios add a reflexive dimension to the pain. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/metaplanet\/\">Metaplanet<\/a> trades at an mNAV of 1.018, essentially in line with its BTC holdings, while Strategy's 0.784 multiple implies the market values its equity at a 21.6% discount to its Bitcoin treasury.<\/p>\n<p>Nakamoto, with 5,398 BTC and a 0.329 mNAV, trades at a 67% discount despite holding coins acquired at $119,729, representing a 44.5% unrealized loss.<\/p>\n<p>This divergence matters because underwater treasuries often need either premium mNAV multiples or dilutive equity raises to keep accumulating. In drawdowns, markets typically demand the opposite: wider discounts and higher hurdle rates for new capital.<\/p>\n<p>Companies that remain profitable, such as Next, retain optionality. They can hold, realize gains to fund operations, or deploy proceeds defensively.<\/p>\n<p>Names 40% underwater face a different calculus: holding becomes a forced bet that Bitcoin rebounds <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/metaplanet-is-the-only-bitcoin-treasury-surviving-a-brutal-market-shift-that-has-left-strategy-investors-totally-exposed\/\">before financing windows close<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_518590\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-518590\" style=\"width: 1705px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-518590 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_KYrGgCKod0.jpg\" alt=\"mNAV reflexivity map\" width=\"1705\" height=\"934\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_KYrGgCKod0.jpg 1705w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_KYrGgCKod0-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_KYrGgCKod0-1024x561.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_KYrGgCKod0-768x421.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Photos_KYrGgCKod0-1536x841.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1705px) 100vw, 1705px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-518590\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scatter plot mapping market-to-NAV ratios against unrealized loss percentages for Bitcoin treasury companies, with bubble sizes representing BTC holdings and showing Nakamoto trading at steep discount despite being 44% underwater.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>The incremental damage<\/h2>\n<p>The current $65,443 price is 51% below Bitcoin's <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-crosses-126000-why-did-btc-reach-a-new-all-time-high\/\">October 2025 peak of $126,000<\/a>, part of a broader crypto market drawdown that has erased nearly $2 trillion in value.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this week, $2.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations accelerated the deleveraging, and Financial Times noted rising prediction-market odds of a sub-$60,000 outcome.<\/p>\n<p>Stifel's technical models flag $38,000 as a cycle-style crash target based on trendline support.<\/p>\n<p>If Bitcoin sees a sustained drop below $60,000, a 9% decline from current levels, Strategy's <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-triggers-7b-loss-for-etf-holders-as-price-could-drop-to-65000-while-strategy-mstr-sits-on-billion-dollar-cushion\/\">incremental loss deepens by $4.6 billion<\/a>, Metaplanet's by $226 million, and Twenty One Capital's by $280 million.<\/p>\n<p>At $50,000, those figures balloon to $11.73 billion, $577 million, and $715 million, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>A slide to $38,000 would impose an additional $20.29 billion loss on Strategy alone, beyond the $6.85 billion it's already underwater.<\/p>\n<p>Strive, holding 13,132 BTC at a $105,850 basis, would see its $517.5 million current loss expand by $373.5 million if <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> hits $38,000.<\/p>\n<p>ProCap's 5,000 BTC, purchased at $104,219.34, would deepen its $188.9 million underwater position by an additional $142 million.<\/p>\n<p>Even Next, still profitable at current prices, would surrender $165.9 million of its $179.5 million paper gain if Bitcoin falls to $38,000, leaving it barely above break-even.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Company<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">BTC held<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">\u0394P\/L to $60,000<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">\u0394P\/L to $50,000<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">\u0394P\/L to $38,000<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Nakamoto<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">5,398<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.03B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.09B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.15B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Next<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">5,833<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.04B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.10B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.17B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ProCap<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">5,000<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.03B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.08B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.14B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Strive<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">13,132<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.08B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.22B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.37B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Metaplanet<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">35,102<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.23B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.58B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$1.00B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Twenty One Capital (XXI)<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">43,514<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.28B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$0.72B<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-$1.24B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Strategy<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>713,502<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>-$4.60B<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>-$11.73B<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>-$20.29B<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Cohort total (ex-Bitcoin Standard)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>821,481<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>-$5.29B<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>-$13.51B<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>-$23.37B<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Strategy share of cohort incremental loss<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>86.9%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>86.9%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><strong>86.9%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>ETF outflows and the distribution shift<\/h2>\n<p>The drawdown coincides with a structural shift in Bitcoin distribution.<\/p>\n<p>US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which accumulated aggressively through 2024 and early 2025, have seen net outflows in recent weeks as institutional allocators rotate toward safer assets.<\/p>\n<p>That flow reversal removes a key buyer bloc that previously absorbed supply pressure, leaving treasury companies as the dominant diamond-hands cohort.<\/p>\n<p>But &#8220;diamond hands&#8221; is a narrative, not a financing strategy. Companies accumulating via convertible debt or equity raises face rising costs and shrinking mNAV premiums.<\/p>\n<p>Metaplanet's 1.018 multiple gives it equity-issuance capacity near parity with BTC holdings.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/microstrategy\/\">Strategy's<\/a> 0.784 means every dollar <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/how-strategy-used-half-its-stock-price-to-buy-225000-bitcoin-in-2025\/\">raised via equity<\/a> costs 1.27 dollars of Bitcoin value on a look-through basis.<\/p>\n<p>Nakamoto's 0.329 multiple turns equity raises into a 3-to-1 dilution tax.<\/p>\n<h2>Reflexivity trap<\/h2>\n<p>The danger isn't only the mark-to-market loss but also the feedback loop.<\/p>\n<p>Underwater treasuries compress mNAV multiples, raising the cost of new capital, slowing accumulation, weighing on equity sentiment, and compressing multiples further.<\/p>\n<p>Companies with high cost bases bought into strength. If Bitcoin continues to fall, they bought into the top of a cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Twenty One Capital's $87,280.37 basis, disclosed in SEC filings, sits 24% above current prices but 13% below Strategy's $76,047 average. It becomes a matter of timing, not conviction.<\/p>\n<p>ProCap's estimated $104,219.34 basis and Strive's $105,850 cluster in the same late-2024 buying window. All three are now 36-37% underwater, meaning they would need Bitcoin to rally above $91,000 to break even, a 37% gain from current levels.<\/p>\n<h2>What happens at $38,000<\/h2>\n<p>If Stifel's $38,000 target materializes, the aggregate loss for these eight treasuries would exceed $25 billion in incremental damage from today's levels.<\/p>\n<p>Strategy alone would result in a $20.29 billion hit on top of its current $6.85 billion paper loss, bringing total unrealized losses to $27.14 billion. Metaplanet would be nearly $2.5 billion underwater total, while Twenty One Capital would approach $2.2 billion.<\/p>\n<p>At that price, even Next would fall short of breakeven, erasing its $179.5 million cushion. The entire cohort would be underwater, with no optionality other than to hold and wait for a recovery that markets are increasingly pricing as uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>Pure Bitcoin treasuries bet that conviction plus scale equals compounding.<\/p>\n<p>When Bitcoin rises, leverage amplifies gains and mNAV multiples expand, turning equity into a call option on BTC with embedded financing arbitrage. When Bitcoin falls, the same leverage turns paper losses into financing constraints and multiple compressions into a reflexive trap.<\/p>\n<p>The current $65,443 price doesn't erase the thesis. Instead, it stress-tests it.<\/p>\n<p>Strategy's $6.85 billion unrealized loss represents 12.6% of its BTC value, a figure that would be tolerable if Bitcoin rebounds. If it doesn't, the question becomes: at what price does underwater become unsustainable, and who decides when conviction turns into capitulation?<\/p>\n<p>For now, the market has rendered its verdict through mNAV: premiums for profitable treasuries, discounts for underwater ones, and steep discounts for those without clear exit ramps.<\/p>\n<p>The paper loss leaderboard isn't static. It recalibrates with every $1,000 move in Bitcoin, and the next leg down will determine whether these treasuries are value traps or cycle survivors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s (BTC) slide to as low as $60,233 overnight, before recovering somewhat to $65,443, has left most of the largest pure-play Bitcoin treasury companies deeply underwater on their holdings, with combined unrealized losses approaching $10 billion across eight entities that collectively control more than 850,000 BTC. The reckoning hits hardest at the top. Strategy, formerly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":518606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,80573,77968,79312],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin collapse sends BTC treasuries $10B underwater as one major firm braces for a $27B disaster<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Eight pure play Bitcoin treasury firms control more than 850,000 BTC, but seven are underwater as Strategy and Metaplanet carry most of the damage.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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