{"id":520659,"date":"2026-02-24T17:35:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T17:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=520659"},"modified":"2026-02-25T16:46:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T16:46:57","slug":"bitcoin-slides-into-worst-profit-cycle-in-history-as-59-of-supply-turns-red","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-slides-into-worst-profit-cycle-in-history-as-59-of-supply-turns-red\/","title":{"rendered":"Only 41% of Bitcoin holders are in profit this cycle – threatening worst halving on record"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin trades in the low-$60,000s, the ledger shows nearly half of holders are sitting on losses.<\/p>\n

Newhedge\u2019s percent supply in profit gauge shows 51.78% of coins are in profit with BTC around $63,275, implying roughly 10.35 million BTC in profit versus 9.64 million BTC in loss.<\/p>\n

However, this weekend, analyst DurdenBTC\u2019s supply in profit tracker had flagged<\/a> an even harsher read: 44.2% of coins were in profit when Bitcoin was still holding $68,000, a 0th-percentile reading.<\/p>\n

That number carries a specific kind of weight. It compresses years of market habit into a single percentage and frames the current scenario as a balance-sheet problem.<\/p>\n

Durden\u2019s note ties the reading to earlier capitulation baselines: December 2018 at $3,359 with 43% in profit; the COVID crash at $4,959 with 48%; and the FTX washout at $15,778 with 49%.<\/p>\n

Then he adds,<\/p>\n

\u201cBTC near $68k, more people underwater than when it traded near $3k.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The intuitive shape of the claim is simple.<\/p>\n

A full cycle bought high, and the unwind shows up as overhead supply. Every rally has a seller inside waiting to get back to break-even.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin supply in profit (Source: DurdenBTC)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This methodology makes this the worst cycle for Bitcoin investors since before 2016, when this specific tracker began. DurdenBTC's method follows that of BGeometrics, which has since fallen to 41.2%.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin supply in profit (Source: BGeometrics)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

To explain the differences in percentages, we understand the definitions properly to highlight which cohort we're measuring.<\/p>\n

For example, CryptoQuant's dashboard for percent supply in profit currently reads 51.6%.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin supply in profit (%) (Source: CryptoQuant)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

That materially different picture points to a split between dormant coins and the coins that actually move through the market\u2019s plumbing.<\/p>\n

CryptoQuant's own framing helps explain how the gap can exist. It describes it as an \u201cactive circulating supply\u201d cost basis that excludes long-inactive coins, steering the lens toward investors with fresh receipts and fresh pain.<\/p>\n

That is where the story stops being a paradox and starts being a map. The long tail of old coins can sit in profit on paper, while the live float still feels like a room full of buyers trapped above spot.<\/p>\n

DurdenBTC\u2019s read comes in lower because, like BGeometrics<\/a>, he\u2019s effectively grading profitability on the coins that actually changed hands in this cycle<\/strong>, <\/em>tagging supply to the market price at each coin\u2019s last on-chain move, so the score is dominated by UTXOs minted at 2021\u20132024 cost bases that now sit above spot.<\/p>\n

Dashboards like CryptoQuant, by contrast, sum profitability across the full live UTXO set in a value-weighted way, which lets large, long-dormant outputs with ultra-low cost bases keep a larger share of the supply \u201cin profit\u201d and boost the percentage.<\/p>\n

In other words: Durden\u2019s lens tilts toward the churned float and recent receipts; the broader UTXO-sum trackers still carry the cushioning effect of old coins that haven\u2019t had to \u201creprice\u201d on-chain.<\/p>\n

Why this matters for Bitcoin\u2019s next move<\/h2>\n

Further, the short-term holder's realized price is near $91,000, while the long-term holder's realized price is near $38,000. The aggregate realized price is around $54,000.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin STH \/ LTH realized price (Source: CryptoQuant)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

BTC today sits around $63,275, about -48.766% from the prior all-time high.<\/p>\n

That is deep enough to knock leverage loose, but shallow enough to keep the \u201cthis is still expensive\u201d instinct alive in the broader public narrative.<\/p>\n

The emotional mismatch comes from that combination: a high nominal sticker with a low profitability ratio.<\/p>\n

It is the kind of setup that produces quiet capitulation. It happens in steps, in forced sales, in smaller wallets going flat, and in larger wallets waiting for liquidity to return.<\/p>\n

The corridor the market keeps trading back into<\/h2>\n

Glassnode\u2019s most recent framing pulls the corridor slightly lower: the True Market Mean sits near ~$79,000, and the Realized Price near ~$54,000.<\/p>\n

It frames them as structural markers for active cost basis and historical re-engagement behavior, according to Glassnode\u2019s Week On-chain<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Think of it as a corridor made of receipts. The upper band marks where active buyers, as a group, get their breath back.<\/p>\n

The lower band marks where longer-term capital has tended to step in when the tape looks broken.<\/p>\n

Inside that corridor, Glassnode previously highlighted a dense URPD cluster from $66,900 to $70,600.<\/p>\n

At $63,000 spot, that cluster reads less like a place to \u201csettle\u201d and more like the first overhead shelf a rebound has to reclaim before any recovery narrative can breathe.<\/p>\n

More broadly, Glassnode\u2019s latest Week On-chain describes a dense demand zone between $60k and $69,000 absorbing sell pressure, a wider cluster that now matters because it is the range the market is actually leaning on.<\/p>\n

This matters for a profitability-collapse story because the first job of any rebound is mechanical.<\/p>\n

Price has to trade through dense cost-basis zones, and it has to do so with enough volume that sellers get absorbed instead of rewarded for waiting.<\/p>\n

The ledger already shows stress as a cash-flow fact. Glassnode reports realized losses with a seven-day SMA above about $1.26 billion per day, with spikes above $2.4 billion per day during sharp sell windows.<\/p>\n

That is what capitulation looks like when you measure it in transactions instead of sentiment.<\/p>\n

At the same time, front-end implied volatility repriced toward about 70%, and downside skew steepened.<\/p>\n

Together, that reads like a market paying for near-term protection and treating discontinuity as a normal operating condition.<\/p>\n

That vol level offers a clean way to talk about range using a simple implied cone.<\/p>\n

BTC around $63,300 with 70% annualized IV maps to roughly \u00b19.7% over one week (about $57,100 to $69,400) and roughly \u00b120.1% over one month (about $50,600 to $76,000).<\/p>\n

It is a forecast of turbulence and a reminder that the market\u2019s gears still spin fast even when the narrative slows down.<\/p>\n

Flows, overhead supply, and the bid that flickers<\/h2>\n

Profitability collapses become consequential when they meet flow regimes, and the past few weeks look like a regime that lost some of its steady demand.<\/p>\n

Glassnode describes allocator demand softening and spot volume staying structurally weak, which turns relief rallies into corrective moves that struggle to become trend changes.<\/p>\n

The ETF tape helps frame that shift in daily increments.<\/p>\n

Since October's all-time high, billions have left ETFs in outflows, with coins leaving on the majority of trading day this year, with occasional inflows.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin ETF flows (Source: Farside Investors)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Stablecoins add a second flow lens because they function as the market\u2019s wrapper, keeping value on-chain while investors choose when to take exposure.<\/p>\n

This month, CryptoSlate<\/a> reported more than $4 billion net stablecoin withdrawals from exchanges, including about $3.1 billion from Binance.<\/p>\n

That followed an earlier October 2025 period with about $9.7 billion average monthly net inflows.<\/p>\n

Together, it supports a picture of capital stepping back from immediate deployment and shifting into a more defensive posture.<\/p>\n

Mining adds a third pressure point because miners carry a real-world cost curve and a treasury that can become a seller in stressed tapes.<\/p>\n

Hashrate Index<\/a> put USD hashprice around $34.05 per PH per day and described the forward market implying about $28.73 on average across six months.<\/p>\n

That is a tight operating environment that can turn into forced sales if price breaks below key demand clusters and financing stays expensive.<\/p>\n

Overhead supply is the consequence that binds these threads.<\/p>\n

CryptoSlate\u2019s supply guide<\/a> from earlier this month frames overhead supply around $93,000 to $110,000 and flags a short-term holder cost basis near $98,300.<\/p>\n

Those levels can act like taped seams in the market\u2019s plumbing, holding pressure until the system trades enough volume through them to seal the leaks.<\/p>\n

In a profitability-compression regime, those seams define where break-even selling emerges.<\/p>\n

They also help explain why rallies can feel heavy even when the headlines turn brighter.<\/p>\n

Macro context, the outside weather that seeps into the pipes<\/h2>\n

Crypto trades inside the global risk budget, and recent macro stress has shown up in the usual cross-market tells.<\/p>\n

A U.S. tariff legal headline coincided with a move described as USD down, gold up, and bitcoin down.<\/p>\n

That fits the pattern of liquidity sensitivity during stress events.<\/p>\n

On rates, the Bank of England held at 3.75% with a 5\u20134 split and said Bank Rate is \u201clikely to be reduced further\u201d depending on inflation.<\/p>\n

That is an easing bias paired with ongoing uncertainty.<\/p>\n

U.S. rate expectations sit in the same neighborhood.<\/p>\n

BlackRock\u2019s iShares outlook<\/a> described a drift in the expected 2026 path from 3.50\u20133.75% toward about 3% and noted leadership uncertainty as part of that backdrop.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley Research<\/a> laid out additional 25-basis-point cuts to a 3.0\u20133.25% terminal range.<\/p>\n

It paired that with a view that tariffs temporarily lift inflation and that unemployment peaks around 4.7% in Q2 2026.<\/p>\n

This macro layer matters for the supply-in-profit story in a practical way.<\/p>\n

Easing expectations can support a rebound, but the on-chain picture still hinges on crypto-native liquidity, ETF flows, stablecoin deployment, and spot demand.<\/p>\n

Those are the pipes that carry new risk appetite into the market\u2019s actual order books.<\/p>\n

Scenarios, framed as triggers and corridors<\/h2>\n

Glassnode provides three that matter here: the $60,000\u2013$69,000 demand zone the market is leaning on, the $66,900 to $70,600 dense URPD shelf, and the True Market Mean near ~$79,000, with the Realized Price near ~$54,900 as the deeper structural floor.<\/p>\n

A base case looks like absorption and range.<\/h3>\n

Price churns inside the $60,000\u2013$69,000 demand band, realized losses cool from their recent pace, ETF flow days move closer to flat, and volatility gradually compresses from elevated levels.<\/p>\n

In that world, the market\u2019s \u201ctell\u201d is whether it can reclaim the $66,900\u2013$70,600 shelf and hold it, not as a wick, but as a lived-in level.<\/p>\n

A downside case looks like deeper capitulation.<\/h3>\n

Price loses the lower end of the demand zone with momentum, liquidations accelerate, miner economics tighten into more treasury selling, and the tape trades down toward the Realized Price near ~$54,900.<\/p>\n

That is the historical zone where longer-term capital has tended to re-engage and where the market often tries to rebuild credibility after a break.<\/p>\n

An upside case looks like a violent rebound into overhead supply.<\/h3>\n

Price reclaims the True Market Mean near ~$79,000, the market tests higher cost-basis bands, and the next heavy seam sits in the $93,000 to $110,000 overhead region.<\/p>\n

The short-term holder cost basis near $98,300 is a level where break-even selling can appear quickly if liquidity stays patchy.<\/p>\n

Across all three, the profitability collapse functions as a behavioral constraint.<\/p>\n

Underwater holders tend to sell when they get air, which means each rally has to do extra work and absorb inventory from recent buyers who want their receipt back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin trades in the low-$60,000s, the ledger shows nearly half of holders are sitting on losses. Newhedge\u2019s percent supply in profit gauge shows 51.78% of coins are in profit with BTC around $63,275, implying roughly 10.35 million BTC in profit versus 9.64 million BTC in loss. However, this weekend, analyst DurdenBTC\u2019s supply in profit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1264,"featured_media":520848,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77873,77968,79312,15323],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOnly 41% of Bitcoin holders are in profit this cycle - threatening worst halving on record<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-slides-into-worst-profit-cycle-in-history-as-59-of-supply-turns-red\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Only 41% of Bitcoin holders are in profit this cycle - threatening worst halving on record\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As Bitcoin trades in the low-$60,000s, the ledger shows nearly half of holders are sitting on losses. 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Newhedge\u2019s percent supply in profit gauge shows 51.78% of coins are in profit with BTC around $63,275, implying roughly 10.35 million BTC in profit versus 9.64 million BTC in loss. 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