{"id":547273,"date":"2026-07-11T10:13:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T09:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=547273"},"modified":"2026-07-11T10:23:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T09:23:44","slug":"bitcoins-64k-rebound-has-three-days-before-its-next-big-challenge-threatens-to-derail-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-64k-rebound-has-three-days-before-its-next-big-challenge-threatens-to-derail-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s $64K rebound has 3 days before its next big challenge threatens to derail momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin traded near $64,100 on Saturday as the clock ticked toward a key test for its rebound. June's US consumer price index is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 14, leaving the market with about three days before the next major macro catalyst.<\/p>\n

The largest crypto asset had gained about 2.6% over seven days, according to CryptoSlate market data<\/a>, but 24-hour volume was running 21% below its recent average. Bitcoin has rebounded, but buyers have yet to fully commit.<\/p>\n

The scheduled inflation report<\/a> will hit a rates market that makes that gap harder to ignore.<\/p>\n

Futures-derived probabilities using CME FedWatch<\/a> methodology put a 64.6% chance on the Federal Reserve holding its 3.50%-3.75% target range on July 29 and a 35.4% chance on a quarter-point hike.<\/p>\n

By September, markets see a 50.9% chance of rates reaching 3.75%-4.00% and an 18.8% chance of 4.00%-4.25%. July appears too soon for the next Fed move. CPI will show whether rate-cut hopes have room to return or if fears of a hike take over.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

Bitcoin rally now depends on one Fed document coming Wednesday<\/h3>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/i>\n <\/span>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

ETF demand has offered only tentative support. US spot Bitcoin funds took in a net $90.4 million on July 10 after losing a combined $180.2 million over the prior two sessions, fund flow data<\/a> showed.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

BlackRock put $209M behind Bitcoin\u2019s rebound but can it last?<\/h3>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/i>\n <\/span>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

Bitcoin futures open interest was near $47.3 billion, with modest positive funding and short liquidations dominating the previous 24 hours. That combination points to active positioning and only modest long exposure.<\/p>\n

Three CPI paths for Bitcoin\"Bitcoin<\/a><\/h2>\n

An upside inflation surprise would be the hardest test. The two-year Treasury yield ended July 10 at 4.21% and the 10-year at 4.56%, both higher on the day, according to Treasury data<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A hotter print could lift yields and the dollar from around the 101 area, raise hike probabilities and put fresh Bitcoin longs at risk if ETF buyers retreat.<\/p>\n

An inline result would leave the rebound dependent on flows. With leverage orderly and ETF demand positive for only one session, holding $64,000 would require buyers to keep absorbing supply after the macro event passes.<\/p>\n\n

A downside surprise would give later easing expectations room to recover. Falling yields and a weaker dollar could help ETF demand extend the rebound, though current probabilities leave that as the lower-confidence branch before the report.<\/p>\n

A split between headline and core inflation could produce the sharpest two-way trade. The first durable signal will be whether Fed probabilities, Treasury yields and the dollar move together.<\/p>\n

The second will be whether the next ETF flow confirms the move or exposes the $64,000 rebound as another short-covering pause.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

July 14 will show whether one day of ETF inflows can outlast firm yields and restrained leverage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1264,"featured_media":547299,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,78665,77968,77911,79312],"tags":[81073,76769,77084,76718],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin\u2019s $64K rebound has 3 days before its next big challenge threatens to derail momentum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin faces a key CPI test on July 14 as ETF inflows, Treasury yields and futures positioning shape the next market move.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-64k-rebound-has-three-days-before-its-next-big-challenge-threatens-to-derail-momentum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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