A Bitcoin breakout attempt briefly pushed price above $65,000 on Aug. 5, but failed to sustain the move, even as Fed funds futures put the odds of a September rate hike at 57.4% as of Aug. 5, down from 80.5% a week earlier.<\/p>\n
Brent crude fell more than 5% on Aug. 4, settling near $79 on hopes of a Hormuz de-escalation deal.<\/p>\n
Lower hike odds and cheaper oil usually ease two of the macro pressures<\/a> that have capped crypto all year. Bitcoin has held inside the same $62,000 to $68,000 range for weeks, and Friday's July jobs report is the market's next chance to settle the question.<\/p>\n A week earlier, futures assigned 22.9% odds to a half-point September hike<\/a>, 57.6% to a quarter-point hike and just 19.5% to a hold, for combined hike odds of 80.5%.<\/p>\n The half-point scenario has since disappeared entirely, and hike odds have fallen to 57.4%. A hike remains the base case, though it is no longer the near-certainty it was a week ago.<\/p>\n The FOMC held its target at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote<\/a>, with three officials pushing for an immediate quarter-point hike. The statement called growth solid and inflation elevated.<\/p>\n Manufacturing accelerated to 55.6 in July<\/a>, its strongest reading since May 2022. Production jumped to 58.5, factory employment expanded for the first time in 33 months, and input prices held elevated at 71.1.<\/p>\n Services activity stayed healthy at 54.1, with new orders climbing to 57.2, but the employment component fell into contraction at 47.4 while prices reached 70.3.<\/p>\n JOLTS data showed a slowly easing labor market<\/a>, with openings near 7.4 million, hires near 5.3 million, and layoffs holding steady.<\/p>\n June's headline PCE fell 0.1% month over month<\/a>, and core PCE rose just 0.1%, though annual rates stayed well above target at 3.7% and 3.3%.<\/p>\nA hike is still the base case, barely<\/h2>\n