{"id":568161,"date":"2026-10-01T23:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T22:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=568161"},"modified":"2026-10-01T18:45:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T17:45:16","slug":"us-factory-costs-spike-threatening-bitcoins-rally-above-85000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/us-factory-costs-spike-threatening-bitcoins-rally-above-85000\/","title":{"rendered":"US factory costs spike, threatening Bitcoin&#8217;s rally above $85,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US manufacturers reported more widespread input-price increases in September, raising a potential financing risk for Bitcoin if investors respond by expecting higher interest rates ahead of Friday\u2019s jobs report.<\/p>\n<p>The Institute for Supply Management\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-pmi-reports\/pmi\/september\/\">Oct. 1 release<\/a> put its manufacturing prices index at 77.9, up 6.8 points from August\u2019s 71.1. The manufacturing PMI registered 54.5, new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7.<\/p>\n<p>For Bitcoin, that combination matters because resilient activity and widening cost pressures could complicate the case for lower interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>The prices gauge measures how widely monthly increases are reported, and its 77.9 reading is not a 77.9% inflation rate. Higher input prices were reported by 58.6% of respondents, compared with 46.2% in August. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/seasonal-adjustment-factors\/\">diffusion-index method<\/a> counts higher responses plus half of unchanged responses.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-85000-test-comes-as-wall-street-gets-two-different-inflation-stories\/\" class=\"cs-article-embed__link\">\n        <div class=\"cs-article-embed__body\">\n            <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span>\n            <h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Bitcoin\u2019s $85,000 test comes as Wall Street gets two different inflation stories<\/h3>\n        <\/div>\n        <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n            <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"><\/i>\n        <\/span>\n    <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<h2>The potential pressure runs through rates<\/h2>\n<p>The policy backdrop already includes a completed increase by the Federal Open Market Committee, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20260916a.htm\">raised its target range<\/a> by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/newsevents\/speeches\/2026\/wil260929\">Sept. 29 remarks<\/a>, New York Fed President John Williams said another upward adjustment might be appropriate late this year if the economy broadly followed his forecast. That was his conditional outlook, and he also said there was no evidence yet of the identified price shocks spilling into broader, more persistent inflation.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_568179\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-568179\" style=\"width: 720px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-88008b16-4f6f-47d2-91d5-c70ee60b255f.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"shoggoth-infographic shoggoth-infographic-portrait wp-image-568179\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-88008b16-4f6f-47d2-91d5-c70ee60b255f.png\" alt=\"September ISM manufacturing prices rose from 71.1 to 77.9 as PMI, orders and employment remained in expansion. A conditional diagram links higher expected rates to potential Bitcoin financing pressure before October 2 payrolls.\" width=\"720\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-88008b16-4f6f-47d2-91d5-c70ee60b255f.png 1122w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-88008b16-4f6f-47d2-91d5-c70ee60b255f-240x300.png 240w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-88008b16-4f6f-47d2-91d5-c70ee60b255f-819x1024.png 819w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-88008b16-4f6f-47d2-91d5-c70ee60b255f-768x960.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-568179\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">September\u2019s ISM Prices Index rose to 77.9 as factory activity remained expansionary, sharpening Bitcoin\u2019s next rates test.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>September\u2019s factory survey adds evidence about input costs to that policy debate, and the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/monetary-policy-what-are-its-goals-how-does-it-work.htm\">Fed\u2019s transmission framework<\/a> explains that policy changes affect short-term borrowing costs and Treasury bill returns. Meanwhile, expectations of future policy influence longer-term rates and financial conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Applied to Bitcoin, the potential pressure splits into more expensive borrowing, which could make financed risk-taking less attractive, and higher returns on interest-bearing dollar assets, which could also raise the return investors demand to hold Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/schedule\/2026\/10_sched.htm\">schedules September\u2019s Employment Situation<\/a> for Oct. 2, and the ISM\u2019s manufacturing employment reading cannot substitute for that national report.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin's implications depend on how investors interpret the combined data. If the jobs report strengthens expectations of higher rates, financing and competing dollar returns could become a firmer obstacle. If front-end Treasury yields or expected policy rates fall, that would weaken the proposed transmission.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/staff_reports\/sr1052\">February 2023 New York Fed staff study<\/a> found no systematic Bitcoin response to monetary and macroeconomic news in its historical intraday sample. The practical test is therefore whether rate expectations move and Bitcoin responds, rather than assuming a factory-cost increase guarantees a selloff.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More manufacturers reported rising input prices as orders and employment expanded, adding evidence to the rates debate before Friday\u2019s payrolls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1264,"featured_media":568187,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,77911,79312],"tags":[81073,76769,77296,75195],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US factory costs spike, threatening Bitcoin&#039;s rally above $85,000<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s rates outlook faces new input-cost 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