{"id":568246,"date":"2026-10-02T13:20:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T12:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=568246"},"modified":"2026-10-02T11:23:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T10:23:29","slug":"bitcoin-survived-5-yields-but-cryptos-cheap-money-era-did-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-survived-5-yields-but-cryptos-cheap-money-era-did-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin survived 5% yields but crypto\u2019s cheap-money era did not"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on Oct. 1, its highest since 2002, capping a third quarter in which it climbed almost 90 basis points, the largest quarterly rise this century. Bitcoin gained about 43% over the same three months and Ethereum about 71%.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-enters-its-best-season-after-a-43-surge-with-147000-suddenly-on-the-math\/\">trades in the mid-$80,000s<\/a>, and the clearest evidence of the yield shock sits in the financing built around it.<\/p>\n<h2>A 5% yield raises the bar, and Q3 buyers cleared it<\/h2>\n<p>The Federal Reserve's H.15 release for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/h15\/\">Oct. 1 put the 10-year at 5.29%<\/a>, the 30-year at 5.64% and the 10-year real yield at 2.93%. Inflation-adjusted returns on government debt now compete with a coupon-free asset.<\/p>\n<p>Bond yields climbed to new highs across the US, France, Germany, Japan and the UK, where 30-year borrowing costs reached 6% for the first time since 1998. Brent crude also moved back above $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p>Against that backdrop, US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $6.3 billion in the third quarter and Ethereum ETFs about $3 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000, citing stronger crypto activity, ETF inflows, and gradual adviser and brokerage allocations. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-slips-below-85000-as-5-treasury-yield-returns-to-haunt-risk-assets\/\">Higher yields stayed a headwind<\/a>, and other sources of demand outweighed it in the third quarter.<\/p>\n<p>One quarter leaves the long-run relationship open, and ETF demand and adviser allocation shaped the outcome alongside yields.<\/p>\n<p>On Sept. 23, a stronger PMI pushed yields higher, and Bitcoin slipped below $85,000, with $135.8 million of long liquidations in a single hour and $510 million over 24 hours.<\/p>\n<p>A separate <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-tests-critical-76000-support-cluster-during-macro-energy-shock\/\">energy shock involving oil<\/a>, bond yields, and Fed expectations triggered about $568 million in forced liquidations. The quarter's direction survived both events, and leveraged traders took the damage.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin leverage gets repriced<\/h2>\n<p>On Sept. 25, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage\/\">open interest on selected exchanges fell 14.3%<\/a> as Bitcoin held near $84,000 with the 10-year at 5.22%. Higher benchmark rates raise the cost of capital for explicit borrowing and implicit leverage such as perpetual futures, basis trades, options structures, and collateralized loans.<\/p>\n<p>Macro shocks also lift volatility enough to force deleveraging inside a bull run.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin treasury companies fund purchases through common equity, preferred stock, and convertible debt, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.skadden.com\/insights\/publications\/2026\/2026-insights\/sector-spotlights\/digital-asset-treasury-companies-are-using-common-forms-of-capital-raising\">according to Skadden<\/a>. The model works when shares trade at a premium to net asset value, since selling stock for more than the crypto behind it buys more crypto per share.<\/p>\n<p>Goodwin describes the sector's compression from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodwinlaw.com\/en\/insights\/publications\/2026\/08\/insights-practices-dats-crypto-pivot-companies-shareholder-activism-risks\">premium valuations to NAV or below<\/a>, with business models that depend on premium-priced equity and debt facing strain, and many treasury companies now trade at or below NAV.<\/p>\n<p>Higher yields lift the return investors demand on preferred shares and convertibles, widen the risk premium on equity, and offer a higher risk-free alternative. Each of those raises the hurdle for a financing model that already depended on NAV premiums and cheap hybrid capital.<\/p>\n<p>Individual discounts also reflect crypto-specific and company-specific factors, and yields shape the backdrop.<\/p>\n<h2>Treasury yields reach DeFi<\/h2>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7387780\">2026 Finance Research Letters study<\/a> using Aave data found stablecoin borrowing and deposit rates linked to US Treasury yields, with the 10-year showing the most consistent added explanatory power across maturities.<\/p>\n<p>An ECB working paper on Aave found restrictive monetary shocks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/pub\/research\/authors\/profiles\/andrea-barbon.en.html\">reduce both stablecoin borrowing demand and liquidity supply<\/a>, with transmission depending on the balance between arbitrage and leverage channels.<\/p>\n<p>Those links vary by market and period, and individual DeFi rates follow their own supply and demand. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin's spot price<\/a> can move through a Treasury shock for weeks, and crypto's dollar funding markets feel it through borrowing costs.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage\/\" class=\"cs-article-embed__link\">\n        <div class=\"cs-article-embed__body\">\n            <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span>\n            <h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Bitcoin survives a 5.2% Treasury shock as traders slash $1.7 billion in leverage<\/h3>\n        <\/div>\n        <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n            <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"><\/i>\n        <\/span>\n    <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>In the zero-rate era, a 4% or 5% crypto yield looked attractive against cash that paid close to zero. At a 5% Treasury, DeFi yields must cover smart contract, liquidity, counterparty, stablecoin, oracle, and governance risk, and products need higher returns, leverage, token incentives, or different liquidity to compete.<\/p>\n<p>RWA.xyz lists 108 tokenized US Treasury fund products, including USYC, USDY, BUIDL and iBENJI. The San Francisco Fed estimates stablecoin issuers' Treasury holdings could roughly double to about $400 billion by 2030 if recent growth continues.<\/p>\n<h2>Where Bitcoin and its plumbing go from here<\/h2>\n<p>If the 10-year falls back below 5% as oil and inflation cool and adviser and brokerage allocations continue, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/citigroup\/\">Citi's<\/a> $113,000 forecast becomes the reference for institutional demand.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury-company premiums could reopen, basis trades would improve, and tokenized collateral adoption would broaden, which fits Citi's tokenization range of $5.5 trillion to $8.2 trillion by 2030.<\/p>\n<p>If yields hold near 5% and real yields stay close to 3%, Bitcoin can keep rallying in bursts, with each data shock raising the odds of a liquidation flush.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury-company discounts would persist, preferred and debt financing would cost more, DeFi borrowing rates would climb, and low-risk DeFi yields would lose appeal against tokenized Treasuries.<\/p>\n<p>A disorderly bond or oil move would put the most weight on leveraged perpetuals, crypto-backed loans, and treasury-company debt and preferred stacks.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin's price absorbed the third quarter's bond shock, and the financing around it took the repricing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on Oct. 1, its highest since 2002, capping a third quarter in which it climbed almost 90 basis points, the largest quarterly rise this century. Bitcoin gained about 43% over the same three months and Ethereum about 71%. Bitcoin trades in the mid-$80,000s, and the clearest evidence of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":568275,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,77911,79312],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin survived 5% yields but crypto\u2019s cheap-money era did not<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin rallied through a historic Treasury selloff as higher yields repriced leverage, treasury-company financing and DeFi credit.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-survived-5-yields-but-cryptos-cheap-money-era-did-not\/\" 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