{"id":572316,"date":"2026-10-14T22:10:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T21:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=572316"},"modified":"2026-10-14T18:37:33","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T17:37:33","slug":"surging-dollar-forces-bitcoin-sell-off-as-rate-hike-odds-double","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/surging-dollar-forces-bitcoin-sell-off-as-rate-hike-odds-double\/","title":{"rendered":"Surging dollar forces Bitcoin sell-off as rate hike odds double"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin faces a tougher interest-rate outlook after US inflation data released Oct. 14 pushed bets on another Federal Reserve hike sharply higher. Rising Treasury yields could weigh on Bitcoin by making interest-bearing dollar assets more attractive.<\/p>\n<p>Market-data provider LSEG data shows\u00a0<span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.devdiscourse.com\/article\/international\/3992346-global-markets-dollar-jumps-stocks-and-bonds-dented-by-hot-us-inflation-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">money markets priced in roughly a 47% chance<\/a> of another October rate increase after the release, up from<\/span> closer to 20% beforehand.<\/p>\n<p>September consumer prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/cpi_10142026.htm\">Bureau of Labor Statistics release<\/a>. Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased to 2.6% from 2.4%. Both readings exceeded forecasts of 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.6% after 0.4% in August. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% and accounted for more than half the monthly headline increase, while shelter costs increased 0.4%. Monthly core CPI rose 0.3%, matching August but exceeding the 0.2% forecasts.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333;\">After the results,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin hit an intraday low<\/a><span style=\"color: #333333;\"> of<\/span>\u00a0$81,588.88 on Oct. 14.<\/p>\n<h2>Another increase would extend September's tightening<\/h2>\n<p>The Fed had already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20260916a.htm\">raised its target range by a quarter percentage point<\/a> to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16. Another hike would extend that tightening, with the next policy meeting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomccalendars.htm\">scheduled for Oct. 27-28<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Post-CPI reports put the two-year Treasury yield at 4.872%, up seven basis points on the day, with the dollar showing gains against a basket of currencies. The shift in those markets shows the inflation surprise is changing expectations for borrowing costs ahead of policymakers' next decision.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/ai-may-be-keeping-bitcoins-biggest-macro-headwind-alive-after-the-fed-stops-hiking\/\" class=\"cs-article-embed__link\">\n        <div class=\"cs-article-embed__body\">\n            <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span>\n            <h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">AI may be keeping Bitcoin\u2019s biggest macro headwind alive after the Fed stops hiking<\/h3>\n        <\/div>\n        <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n            <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"><\/i>\n        <\/span>\n    <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>For Bitcoin holders, the consequence depends partly on whether those higher yields persist. Continued competition from interest-bearing dollar assets could create a headwind for a cryptocurrency that does not pay interest, even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged in October.<\/p>\n<p>The release also followed a period of cheaper short-term volatility pricing. Oct. 12 showed concentrated put options on <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/deribit\/\">Deribit<\/a> at $76,000-$80,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-traders-brace-for-cpi-shock-with-451-million-in-downside-options-bets\/\">for the Oct. 16 expiry<\/a>, which buyers can use to protect against falling prices.<\/p>\n<p>The immediate change is greater market concern about further tightening. It remains unclear whether Bitcoin can withstand that pressure if yields stay elevated as the October Fed decision approaches.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>September US inflation reached 3.7%, lifting yields as markets increased bets on another rate rise before the October 27\u201328 Fed meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1264,"featured_media":572345,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,77911,79312],"tags":[81073,76769,78262],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Surging dollar forces Bitcoin sell-off as rate hike odds double<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin faces greater rate risk after September US inflation hit 3.7%, lifting October Fed hike odds to roughly 47% and sending 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