{"id":574090,"date":"2026-10-18T13:30:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T12:30:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=574090"},"modified":"2026-10-18T12:35:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T11:35:35","slug":"cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant CEO sees $30,000 Bitcoin floor even if ETFs and treasury firms exit"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> could find support near $30,000 even if institutional investors unwind their accumulated exposure, CryptoQuant's chief executive argues.<\/p>\n<p>The scenario would require reversing roughly $58 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and selling the 1.3 million BTC publicly traded companies have accumulated. Yet <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/cryptoquant\/\">CryptoQuant<\/a> CEO Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin's on-chain investor cost basis would still support prices about three times McGlone's $10,000 crash forecast.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Even if all of it leaves, on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k,&#8221; Ju <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/2111203821242232951\">wrote on X<\/a> on Oct. 16, responding to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.<\/p>\n<p>The scale of that hypothetical retreat is substantial. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through Oct. 16, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/farside.co.uk\/btc\/\">Farside Investors<\/a>, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/treasuries\/bitcoin\/companies\">CoinGecko<\/a> tracks 1.302 million BTC across 180 public-company treasuries. Those corporate holdings represent about 6.2% of Bitcoin's maximum supply and are worth approximately $106 billion at recent prices.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/strategys-bitcoin-buying-hits-lowest-level-since-december-as-strc-buybacks-reach-record-192-million\/\">Michael Saylor-led Strategy<\/a> alone owns 848,250 BTC, accounting for roughly 65% of the public-company total. Its position means any broad corporate retreat would be heavily shaped by the financing decisions of a single company, even as dozens of smaller treasury firms face their own market and liquidity pressures.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin was trading near $82,000 over the weekend after <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-100000-dream-slips-away-as-939-million-crypto-wipeout-pushes-traders-toward-78000\/\">slipping below $80,000 during the week's selloff<\/a>. A fall to $30,000 would erase roughly 63% of its value from that level, making Ju's estimate a severe bear-market outcome despite its distance from McGlone's prediction.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Bitcoin at $10,000 would require a deeper historical break<\/h2>\n<p>Ju's assessment rests on Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, which compares its prevailing market capitalization with the aggregate value of coins at the prices they last moved on-chain. The latter measure produces a realized price often used as a gauge of investors' collective cost basis.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-realized-price-is-the-real-bull-market-signal\/\">Bitcoin's realized price<\/a> stood near $53,855 on Oct. 18, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.perly.io\/chart\/realized-price\">Perly's on-chain data<\/a>. Using that realized price as a fixed reference, a $30,000 market price would put MVRV around 0.56, a reading associated with particularly deep capitulation. McGlone's $10,000 target would put the ratio near 0.19. Realized price would itself change as coins moved during a selloff.<\/p>\n<p>Ju argued that Bitcoin's worst historical market bottom occurred around 0.6 MVRV. The longer record includes a reading near 0.55 at the January 2015 low and approximately 0.46 in November 2011. More recent major bottoms occurred around 0.69 in 2018 and 0.78 in 2022, leaving a potential move toward 0.2 well outside those precedents.<\/p>\n<p>The CryptoQuant founder also pointed to investors who bought Bitcoin in 2019 and continued holding through successive collapses. For the cryptocurrency to revisit $10,000, he argued, that cohort would have to capitulate despite having already survived two drawdowns of roughly 75%.<\/p>\n<p>That conviction faces a different kind of risk in the institutional era. A large holder need not lose faith in Bitcoin to sell: ETF redemptions can turn investor exits into spot-market selling, while corporate financing needs or balance-sheet pressures can drive treasury transactions. The market price itself depends on bids available when those sales occur, rather than the average historical cost of outstanding coins.<\/p>\n<p>McGlone's warning begins with those broader financial conditions. In an <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mikemcglone11\/status\/2111078386659365279\">Oct. 16 post<\/a> titled &#8220;A Bitcoin $10,000 Reversion Path Could Trigger Tumbling Dominoes,&#8221; he argued that Bitcoin's rise above $100,000 in 2025, gold's surge past $5,000, and rising government bond yields could signal a reversal across risk assets.<\/p>\n<p>He sees support toward $10,000, especially if US equities suffer a 20% drawdown. Higher bond yields and restrictive monetary policy would add pressure by making cash and fixed-income assets more competitive as risk appetite weakens. A move from around $81,500 to his target would be a decline of nearly 88%.<\/p>\n<p>Signs of institutional selling have already appeared, although on a much smaller scale. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-etfs-suffer-biggest-exodus-since-june-as-ethereum-withdrawals-hit-nine-month-high\/\">US spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/a> recorded over $900 million in net outflows across the two weeks ending Oct. 16, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/farside.co.uk\/btc\/\">Farside Investors<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The larger near-term test may emerge in equities. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/strategys-mstr-69-decline-exposes-a-bigger-danger-behind-mscis-2-8-billion-selling-threat\/\">MSCI's new index eligibility criteria threaten to exclude Strategy<\/a> from global benchmarks. A November 2025 JPMorgan scenario estimated about $2.8 billion in passive sales of its shares if MSCI removed it. Such index-driven selling would affect Strategy stock directly, and the consequences for its Bitcoin holdings would depend on the company's funding choices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if institutional investors unwind their accumulated exposure, CryptoQuant&#8217;s chief executive argues. The scenario would require reversing roughly $58 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and selling the 1.3 million BTC publicly traded companies have accumulated. Yet CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":720,"featured_media":574166,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,79312,6849],"tags":[],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>CryptoQuant CEO sees $30,000 Bitcoin floor even if ETFs and treasury firms exit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even after a hypothetical exit by spot ETFs and corporate treasuries.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CryptoQuant CEO sees $30,000 Bitcoin floor even if ETFs and treasury firms exit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even after a hypothetical exit by spot ETFs and corporate treasuries.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CryptoSlate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-18T12:30:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-18T11:35:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bitcoin-pressure-dome.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cryptoslate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit\/\"},\"author\":{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/#person\",\"name\":\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/author\/oluwapelumi-adejumo\/#authorimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/profile-oluwapelumi-adejumo-1-300x300.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/profile-oluwapelumi-adejumo-1-300x300.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Oluwapelumi Adejumo\"},\"jobTitle\":\"Senior Reporter\",\"description\":\"Oluwapelumi values Bitcoin's potential. 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