{"id":575200,"date":"2026-10-22T09:40:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T08:40:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/?p=575200"},"modified":"2026-10-22T09:30:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T08:30:19","slug":"bitcoins-80000-floor-faces-friday-inflation-test-as-etf-inflows-lose-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-80000-floor-faces-friday-inflation-test-as-etf-inflows-lose-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s $80,000 floor faces Friday inflation test as ETF inflows lose momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin<\/a> holds the $80,000 area, where Glassnode places the estimated average acquisition costs of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded corporate treasuries, while ETF inflows slowed by 95.6% in a day.<\/p>\n

Farside Investors recorded $526.7 million in net inflows<\/a> on Oct. 19 and $23.2 million on Oct. 20, with both sessions positive. A $26 billion five-year TIPS auction on Thursday, then flash PMIs and final University of Michigan inflation expectations on Friday, arrive before the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin buyers at the cost basis<\/h2>\n

Glassnode's Oct. 21 report<\/a> shows the Oct. 15 selloff\u00a0closing\u00a0hourly <\/a><\/span>near $80,100<\/a>, briefly below its estimated ETF cost basis of about $81,500. Corporate treasuries in its coverage hold coins at an average cost near $80,200.<\/p>\n

The largest block of spot bids on Binance<\/a> sat near $80,000, the selloff consumed most of it, and bids had reappeared by Oct. 20 at a smaller size.<\/p>\n

An ETF cost basis averages a fund's holdings, a treasury's cost basis records what it paid<\/a> and leaves future purchases to its own mandate, and displayed bids can be pulled.<\/p>\n

Above $80,000, Glassnode<\/a> finds overhead supply between $85,000 and $87,500, where coins bought six to 12 months ago average near $86,700 and modeled futures liquidations cluster between $85,000 and $87,000.<\/p>\n

Below it, a liquidation cluster sits near $79,600, and the True Market Mean is near $77,600.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin rebounded after briefly touching $80,100 near the $81,500 US spot ETF cost basis, remaining above the $77,600 True Market Mean.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Two days of inflation tests<\/h2>\n

The Oct. 19 and 20 sessions brought in $549.9 million combined, so the slowdown describes new net money, and withdrawals sit elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Glassnode finds average spot ETF trading volume over 30 days at less than a quarter of its level a year earlier. Corporate treasury purchases since June run at less than 10% of the November 2024 peak.<\/p>\n

September CPI reached 3.7% annually, and the preliminary Michigan survey put one-year expectations at 4.7% and longer-term expectations at 3.5%. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters survey expect a hold on Oct. 28.<\/p>\n

Hotter readings could lift short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar, and the two-year yield stood near 4.8% on Oct. 20, up more than a percentage point in 2026, according to Glassnode.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n
\n Related Reading<\/span>\n

Two firms control corporate Bitcoin buys, even as business adoption broadens<\/h3>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/i>\n <\/span>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n

The chain is conditional, since a hot producer-price report on Oct. 15 arrived as the 10-year yield fell to about 5.087% and the dollar retreated from an 18-month high.<\/p>\n

The five-year TIPS auction on Thursday afternoon tests demand for inflation-protected debt. A weak reception can lift real yields even when inflation expectations hold steady, so read the five-year real yield and breakeven inflation together.<\/p>\n

The flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. and the final Michigan survey at 10:00 a.m. on Friday add business pricing and household expectations.<\/p>\n

What breaks the range<\/h2>\n

From $80,000, the True Market Mean is 3% lower, and $87,500 is 9.4% higher; from the $81,500 ETF cost basis, $87,500 is 7.4% higher.<\/p>\n

If Michigan expectations hold at or below the preliminary readings, PMI price components ease, the two-year yield falls, and the dollar stays flat or weaker, Bitcoin has room to test $85,000 to $87,500.<\/p>\n

A move through $87,500 on better volume and repeated ETF inflows would show demand above the cost basis.<\/p>\n

If expectations come in above the preliminary readings, PMI prices run hot, the two-year yield and the dollar climb, and ETF flows turn negative, the replenished bids face a real test.<\/p>\n

A close below $80,000 would put the $79,600 cluster first, and the $77,600 True Market Mean next. A reading that raises yields while Bitcoin holds $80,000 and keeps drawing inflows would point to other demand offsetting the rate shock.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has found buyers near its institutional cost bases, and Friday's data will test whether that demand reaches the supply above it before the Fed meets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin holds the $80,000 area, where Glassnode places the estimated average acquisition costs of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded corporate treasuries, while ETF inflows slowed by 95.6% in a day. Farside Investors recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 19 and $23.2 million on Oct. 20, with both sessions positive. A $26 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1511,"featured_media":575255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,77968,77911,79312],"tags":[81073,76769],"prediction_market_topic":[],"post_folder":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin\u2019s $80,000 floor faces Friday inflation test as ETF inflows lose momentum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin faces critical US inflation data ahead of the Fed decision as ETF inflows weaken and $80,000 support comes under scrutiny.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoins-80000-floor-faces-friday-inflation-test-as-etf-inflows-lose-momentum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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