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With its medium-term moving averages quickly converging following its spectacular August recovery, Bitcoin is getting close to one of the most recognizable bullish technical signals. However, what transpires in the vicinity of the $80,000–$82,000 resistance zone will determine how significant the possible golden cross is.
Bitcoin's 200-day recovery possibility
After rising from the June low of about $58,000, Bitcoin is currently trading around $79,250. More significantly, the moving-average structure was entirely altered by the August breakout. As the shorter averages started to rise more quickly, Bitcoin recovered the 200-day moving average, which is currently close to $72,830.
The slower 100-day average is currently close to $70,560, and the 50-day moving average is currently around $70,210. This positions the two nearly on top of one another. A bullish crossover would demonstrate Bitcoin's medium-term momentum has significantly changed. But another rally is not assured by the golden cross alonem it's a mere confirmation.
Moving-average crossovers are lagging indicators, as the majority of the recovery needed to produce the signal has already occurred. Prior to the crossover, Bitcoin surged from about $63,000 to over $80,000. Because of this, the current price structure is more significant than the actual cross.
Is Bitcoin ready for $100,000?
BTC has frequently faltered between $80,000 and $82,000. Sellers pushed the asset back toward $79,000 after the most recent attempt reached about $81,500. While its signal average is still at about 68, the RSI has also decreased from overbought levels to about 62.
This suggests that while bullish momentum is still present, it is no longer increasing. In order for the golden cross to be practically useful, Bitcoin must transform the current consolidation into a new high. The main local resistance would be removed by a daily close above $82,000, which could pave the way for $85,000. The structure on the downside is still largely intact.
The 200-day moving average is close to $72,800, and the first significant dynamic support is around $75,900. The bullish interpretation of the crossover would be seriously undermined if the latter were lost.
Bitcoin's medium-term technical structure is currently strengthened by the golden cross, but price must still validate it. In the absence of a breakout above $82,000, the signal primarily characterizes an existing rally rather than ensuring the next one.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
