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Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, successfully breaking through a long-term trendline that has accurately predicted the start of every bull run since 2019. Surging into the $85,897 zone, the price completely absorbed a massive wall of sell orders that had been holding the market back since mid-August.
According to reports from analytics platforms Glassnode and CryptoQuant, the latest breakout above the psychological $80,500 level has officially pushed the market into a confirmed uptrend.
At the same time, the on-chain MVRV ratio crossed above its long-term average and entered a zone of sustained upward momentum. Glassnode notes that a similar pattern was observed at the beginning of macro cycles in 2019 and 2023, when the network emerged from a prolonged phase of capital accumulation.
The MVRV metric measures the difference between Bitcoin's market value and the cost basis of investors' holdings. Its move into positive territory therefore indicates that the average profitability of network participants has finally returned to growth.
Pragmatism over euphoria: Why this bull run will be different from previous ones
Against this backdrop, sellers are no longer willing to part with their coins at a discount, while the SOPR index confirms that any attempts to take profits are now immediately absorbed by strong spot demand.
Large capital holders have seized the initiative and begun moving in the same direction as exchange traders for the first time in the past three years, technically breaking the prolonged downtrend that had dominated the asset over the previous months.
Nevertheless, CryptoQuant researchers advise maintaining a pragmatic approach, as the market in the fall of 2026 is much more dependent on inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions than in previous cycles.
The immediate task for buyers remains defending the $80,500 level and turning it into a reliable support line.
If this level withstands local tests, the next major challenge for traders will be an assault on the $88,000–$90,000 zone, a breakout above which, according to the platforms' historical models, could open the door to entirely new all-time highs.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
