NEAR entered September near $1.80 before accelerating sharply higher. After trading below $2.70 in mid-September, the token rose from approximately $2.62 on Sept. 16 to $4.60 by Sept. 24, according to historical market data.
The rally continued through the end of the month, with NEAR reaching approximately $5.55 on Sept. 27 and closing Sept. 30 at about $5.34. That represented a gain of more than 100% in roughly two weeks and put NEAR among the strongest-performing major altcoins during the period.
Derivatives activity also increased alongside the price. Santiment reported that NEAR gained about 81% between Sept. 13 and Sept. 20, while dollar-denominated open interest increased 119%.
However, open interest measured in NEAR tokens rose by only about 21%, suggesting that the increase was partly driven by the token's rising dollar value rather than an equivalent expansion in underlying positions.
Funding rates reached roughly 1.6 times their two-month median during September. Santiment noted that leverage had become increasingly important to the rally, but the available metrics did not yet show the type of divergence typically associated with positioning exhaustion.
The derivatives market received another boost when NEAR spot trading went live on Hyperliquid on Sept. 22-23, adding direct NEAR/USDC trading to the platform alongside its existing perpetual market. NEAR perpetual open interest on Hyperliquid stood at approximately $344 million at the time, highlighting the scale of leveraged interest in the token.
Another major catalyst arrived on Sept. 29 with the launch of Bitwise's first U.S. spot NEAR ETF. Listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker NRR, the fund is designed to hold NEAR directly and stake the tokens, with an annual fee of 0.75%. By Oct. 6, the fund had reportedly attracted about $58 million during its first week.
The ETF launch also brought attention to a 40-page Bitwise research report. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of European Research André Dragosch presented several scenarios for NEAR's future value, including a maximum-case estimate of $562.81 by 2030.
That projection is based on the assumption that NEAR could capture about 3% of the global AI agent market, equivalent to roughly 950 million agents, while applying a 50-times price-to-sales multiple based on a SaaS-style valuation framework.
AI supports bullish narrative
The investment case around NEAR increasingly extends beyond its role as a general-purpose blockchain. The network has been building an ecosystem focused on AI agents, confidential inference and cross-chain infrastructure.
NEAR AI expanded its confidential-inference platform through an integration with OpenRouter on Sept. 28. NEAR One also introduced the SPICE architecture on Sept. 30, proposing a redesign that separates transaction execution from consensus with the goal of improving scalability.
These developments have provided additional fundamental narratives for a rally that has otherwise been driven heavily by momentum and derivatives activity.
At the same time, NEAR's technical structure has become increasingly stretched. After briefly reaching the $5.50-$5.55 area, the token pulled back toward $4.70-$5.00. As of Oct. 6, it was trading around $5.16-$5.27, while its weekly RSI was near 75.
How high can NEAR price go?
The token's moving averages are substantially below its current price. The 50-day moving average is around $2.90, while the 100-day and 200-day averages are near $2.40 and $2.10, respectively. The widening gap highlights how far NEAR has moved above its established trend.
RSI briefly approached 85 before the latest pullback, indicating exceptionally strong momentum but also increasing the risk of a deeper retracement or extended consolidation. Such conditions do not necessarily invalidate the broader uptrend, but they can make further gains more volatile.
NEAR has since shifted from an underperforming altcoin to one of the market's strongest momentum stories in a matter of weeks. The ETF launch, institutional interest and growing AI narrative provide potential fundamental support, while the rapid price appreciation has made profit-taking and leverage important risks.
For now, the $4.60-$4.70 area is the key support zone. Holding above it could allow NEAR to establish a higher base before another attempt at $5.00 and potentially the $5.40-$5.60 resistance area.
A sustained break below that support, however, could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction after the token's extraordinary September advance.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
