XRP staged a sharp recovery on Sept. 21, climbing from roughly $1.41 to $1.54 and gaining almost 9% in a single session.
The token subsequently surrendered part of the advance on Sept. 22, leaving traders assessing whether the latest move marks the start of a broader recovery or another short-term rebound.
The move came as capital returned to crypto markets. According to SoSoValue data cited in market reports, US-listed spot crypto ETFs recorded more than $1.9 billion in net inflows over a 24-hour period. Bitcoin accounted for approximately $1.36 billion of the total, while other digital assets also attracted fresh capital.
XRP's recovery has also improved its short-term technical picture. Market analysts have pointed to the token testing a descending trendline that has limited several recovery attempts since the August peak.
Some momentum indicators have started to improve, although derivatives positioning remains less decisive. The combination suggests that traders have become more constructive but have not yet established a broadly bullish positioning across the market.
Will there be Uptober?
The broader crypto market remains an important factor for XRP. Bitcoin's recent weakness has put pressure on altcoins, while traders are increasingly looking toward the fourth quarter and the historical tendency for stronger crypto-market performance during October.
That has revived the familiar "Uptober" narrative, with some market participants expecting September weakness to give way to a stronger October.
Historical data, however, offers a more complicated picture for XRP. While October has produced several substantial rallies for the token, its historical monthly performance has not consistently followed the broader crypto-market pattern. One analysis of XRP's historical returns put the median October performance at approximately -1.79%.
As a result, seasonal trends alone provide limited evidence for what XRP could do in the coming month. The recent rebound is a more immediate factor, particularly if the token can maintain its gains and challenge the resistance levels that have contained previous rallies.
The US regulatory backdrop is another consideration. The Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act through a procedural vote on Sept. 16 removed one potential near-term catalyst for the broader US crypto market.
The setback does not eliminate the possibility of future regulatory progress, but it leaves the proposed market-structure legislation stalled.
For XRP, the combination of stronger spot-market activity, improving technical momentum and renewed interest in October creates a more constructive backdrop. At the same time, mixed derivatives data and the broader market's sensitivity to Bitcoin suggest that the recovery remains dependent on several external factors.
“Uptober” is therefore better viewed as a market narrative than a reliable forecast. XRP would need to sustain its recovery and move through established resistance levels before the latest rebound could be considered a more significant technical shift.
XRP price prediction
XRP's weekly chart has also attracted attention following the end of a roughly five-week consolidation period. The token gained about 5.5% over the week and briefly reached $1.57 before settling back into the $1.51-$1.54 area.
Technical trader Peter Brandt has presented a substantially higher long-term scenario for XRP, identifying $5.40 as a potential target based on the asset's historical chart structure. From the approximately $1.50 level, such a move would represent a gain of around 260%.
Brandt's analysis focuses on a long-term technical formation that developed over several years. His chart shows a descending resistance line extending from XRP's 2018 peak and an ascending support line originating around the 2020 lows. The two boundaries eventually formed a large converging structure.
XRP subsequently broke above the upper boundary during its major advance, eventually climbing above $3 before entering a prolonged correction.
The cryptocurrency is now trading considerably below that peak. Brandt's chart places XRP around $1.49 while showing the token consolidating below its 18-month moving average, which sits near $1.88.
That technical setup leaves two distinct reference points for the current market. The recent recovery toward $1.54-$1.57 shows that buyers have returned after the September decline, while the longer-term chart still places XRP below a significant moving-average level.
A sustained move through nearby resistance could strengthen the recovery narrative, while failure to maintain the recent gains would leave XRP within the broader consolidation that has characterized its recent price action.
For now, the $1.50 area remains a key reference point as traders assess whether the September rebound can develop into a larger fourth-quarter move.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
