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XRP and much of the broader crypto market managed a short-lived bounce on Monday after last week’s sharp drop to around $1.04. The recovery, however, comes with fresh cautions hanging over the token.
Alex Carchidi, expert from The Motley Fool, argues that two important XRP-related metrics have turned notably bearish over the last 30 days. If the situation does not improve soon, he warns, it could undermine the argument that XRP is the “go-to” way to gain exposure to institutional activity in the tokenization market.
Two Bearish Signals Emerge
Carchidi points first to the XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) role in tokenized assets. He notes that the chain is holding about $384.5 million in tokenized assets, which is down 11% over the 30 days ending on June 5.
Just as importantly, Carchidi says this breaks a prior stretch in which the value of tokenized assets on the network had been rising more steadily. The decline is not happening in isolation either.
Alongside the drop in tokenized asset value, XRPL’s share of the overall tokenized-asset market has slipped to just over 1%, while tokenization activity on other chains appears to be picking up pace.
The second metric Carchidi highlights is even more concerning. According to his report, the XRPL’s 30-day tokenized asset transfer volume has fallen 59% to roughly $54.1 million.
In his view, this is the kind of slowdown that matters because inactive or stagnant tokenized assets don’t generate the economic “motion” that a blockchain ecosystem depends on.
Carchidi argues that when tokenized assets stop moving, it suggests asset managers may be holding positions rather than deploying capital to generate yield.
Conditional Warning For XRP
Carchidi frames the issue in practical terms. If tokenized assets are not being transferred, he says the network’s economy is not demonstrating its value, which can weaken the bullish case for XRP in the tokenization narrative.
In other words, the problem isn’t simply that tokenized assets are lower in value—it’s that the activity associated with those assets appears to be fading. Still, Carchidi also acknowledges that the picture is not uniformly bleak. He points to growth in other parts of the XRPL ecosystem during the same 30-day window.
Specifically, real-world asset (RWA) holders on the XRPL rose 275%, bringing the total to 105 holders. At the same time, stablecoin transfer volume increased by 118%, reaching $4.5 billion.
That contrast, Carchidi suggests, indicates that capital is still flowing through the network, just not as much through the tokenized asset pipeline that investors watch most closely. Because of that, he does not present the decline in tokenized asset transfer volume as an immediate “fire alarm.”
His warning is conditional: if tokenized asset metrics continue to shrink over the next quarter or so—especially if outflows accelerate or volume falls even faster—then the bullish thesis for XRP tied to tokenization institutional positioning could face a serious credibility problem.
For now, the recovery after $1.04 to current trading levels around $1.18 may be a step up for sentiment, but the broader tokenization indicators remain the key question for what happens next.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
