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Against the backdrop of intense pressure from the U.S. debt market, crypto investors are increasingly asking whether they have missed their chance to enter. According to a fresh report from market maker Wintermute, the answer is clear: it is not too late to buy, because the global bull trend in digital assets is still in the early stages of its cycle.
Still, in the short term, investors in majors like NEAR and XRP should prepare for a local breather, as the current three-month altcoin rally has reached a mature phase.
As of October 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was up 2.4% for the week, holding at $86,100, showing that the flagship asset still has strong upside potential. Buyers' main achievement was holding the $82,500 level, which has now turned into support. The next target is the $90,000–$95,000 range, where retail investors' euphoric positioning ran into a wall of profit-taking earlier this year.
However, BTC's further advance is now being driven not by crypto-specific events but by conditions in traditional markets. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped to 5.35%, while 30-year yields reached 5.6% — their highest levels since 2008.
As Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 grows, this creates a hidden macroeconomic risk for the crypto market if stocks fall.
Why the lull in XRP and NEAR is good news for the market
For investors who think it is already too late to enter positions in NEAR, XRP, ARB, or ZEC, the current market offers an important clue: the altcoin index fell 1.1%, recording its first weekly decline since early August.
While fundamentally strong projects have spent the past 14 days moving sideways, a dangerous surge has begun in low-cap, low-quality tokens. Capital has started flowing into lagging second-tier assets simply because they have not yet risen.
Wintermute emphasizes that the current local wave appears exhausted, and buying low-quality coins at this stage is a classic trap for latecomers. By contrast, the lull in NEAR and XRP represents healthy consolidation. The long-term anatomy of the trend fully supports the view that this bull cycle is only beginning.
Wintermute analysts assess market maturity by tracking changes in the top 250 cryptocurrencies, where new technology names are replacing the heavyweights of past years.
After the foundations were laid through DePIN and AI in 2024, followed by the expansion of AI agents in early 2025, October 2026 is showing a steady increase in high-quality market capitalization. This rotation echoes patterns from previous years, meaning altcoins have every chance of establishing themselves as full-fledged blue chips in the current cycle.
The market is simply waiting for November 3, when the U.S. midterm elections will reduce uncertainty around Treasury bonds and clear the way for new highs.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
