Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Bitcoin is trading around $83,850, testing the limits of classical macroeconomic models. Its powerful surge above the May local high has forced bears to capitulate and even the most committed believers in four-year cycles to admit they were wrong.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of the analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse, openly acknowledged that his bet on a market decline had not worked out. The analyst expected the combined pressure of rising energy prices, the Fed's hawkish monetary policy and surging U.S. Treasury yields to send Bitcoin searching for a new bottom.
Instead, the cryptocurrency has completely ignored the macroeconomic headwinds.
"Bitcoin broke through the May high this week, which I clearly got wrong," Cowen said, adding that Bitcoin had so far simply shrugged off negative factors, catching him by surprise.
Will one candle decide it all? Why traders are watching Sunday
Despite the bulls' local triumph, an undercurrent of uncertainty remains in the market. Long-term U.S. yields continue to rise, which has historically drained liquidity from risk markets. In Cowen's view, this factor is already beginning to affect other sectors, but Bitcoin is still holding its ground.
"The rally above the May high certainly humbled me," he admitted, adding that he is now trying to be less deterministic in his forecasts.
The analyst is urging traders to set aside the euphoria for now and focus on the upcoming weekly close, which could rewrite the current market cycle.
If Bitcoin closes the week above the May peak, it would decisively break the bearish structure. But if momentum fades by the end of the week and the price falls back into the old range, the move higher will prove to have been a false breakout.
"For breakout traders, I think the weekly candle is worth watching closely," Cowen said, emphasizing that the close will show whether the market confirms the breakout or investors face a failed attempt to leave the range amid rising interest rates and a supply shock.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
