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XRP trades at $1.34, and the chart has reached a critical point. The 50-day average, shown in blue, sits near $1.39. The 200-day average, in black, is just beneath it at about $1.38. The gap between them is tiny. If the blue line slips below the black one, the death cross is complete.
XRP drops down
This signal has an ominous name, but it is slow. It reacts to price that has already fallen. XRP dropped from $1.66 in late September to $1.34 now, and that decline is what pulled the 50-day line down. The cross would therefore confirm a move that has already happened, not predict a new one. Still, many traders watch it, and headlines can add selling pressure.
Price is also sitting at the orange line near $1.34. This line has held XRP up since the August jump. Over the past few days, sellers pushed below it, but buyers brought price back. The wick down to about $1.28 shows that dip buyers are active. Today's small green candle is a first sign of defense, although it is not strong.
Are sellers on the edge?
The RSI is near 40, which means sellers have the edge, but the market is not yet oversold. Volume has also dried up compared with August and September. Low volume on a drop can suggest sellers are tired. It can also suggest that no one is interested in buying. Without a spike in volume, a clean reversal is hard to trust.
The cross will most likely finalize if XRP closes below the orange line and the $1.28 low. In that case, the next area to watch is $1.25, where price bounced in mid-September, followed by the $1.15 to $1.20 zone. Selling could accelerate there because the moving averages would all point down.
A different path exists. If XRP closes above $1.40, it would climb back over the blue and black lines at the same time. That would stop the 50-day line from falling and cancel the cross for now. Bulls could then aim for $1.45 and the green line, and later $1.55.
Our view is that the cross is more likely than not, because the averages are already touching and price is below them. But the orange support has not broken yet. A few daily closes will decide the matter. Until then, the setup is a coin flip with a slight tilt to the downside.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
