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Bitcoin's price has settled within a narrow $82,900–$83,000 range, coming close to a psychologically important support level. After a strong autumn rally, the cryptocurrency has entered a phase that technical analysts call a "hard retest" — a situation in which the price returns to a previous breakout level to confirm the strength of buyers.
The outcome of this test will determine the cryptocurrency market's trend through the end of the year.
Bitcoin's current move fully mirrors the macroeconomic pattern dominating global markets. Well-known technical analyst Aksel Kibar from TechCharts notes that "since May 2026, we are seeing more retests and hard re-tests in Global Equities after breakouts."
How a global liquidity shortage has reached crypto
In his assessment, the cause lies in the specifics of the current environment: due to "Global liquidity and lack of momentum," major assets can no longer rise unchecked. Every strong rally is now accompanied by a deep technical pullback, and Kibar believes that "the same can be the case for cryptocurrencies." This liquidity shortage has forced a prolonged rally into a harsh reset.
On the daily BTC/USD chart, this trend follows a clear pattern:
- Summer support: In July, after falling to $57,800, the market found a bottom and established a base for growth.
- Autumn momentum: In September, Bitcoin successively broke through resistance levels at $71,500 and $76,100.
- October test: The chart has now reached the 82,800 mark. The analyst directly points to this level, suggesting that "BTC might be going through one of those hard retests of 82.8K." If buyers hold it, the level will become a launchpad for a move toward $90,000. Otherwise, the asset risks returning to its summer consolidation range.
The market's cooling is reinforced by the external macroeconomic backdrop. Investors are exercising extreme caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's key meeting scheduled for October 27–28. Expectations of hawkish rhetoric from the US central bank and the potential continuation of high interest rates traditionally push capital out of risk assets and into safe-haven instruments such as government bonds.
Against this backdrop, decentralized prediction platforms reflect moderate skepticism: market participants put the probability of a temporary BTC drop below the psychologically important $80,000 mark at 63%.
Nevertheless, there are no signs of panic or capitulation on the charts. Although Bitcoin is trading roughly one-third below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, large long-term holders are in no rush to liquidate their positions.
Kibar himself succinctly sums up the market sentiment with the phrase "Still holding." The current pullback is seen as a necessary technical breather, with the outcome set to be decided around the $82,800 level in the coming days.
Arman Shirinyan
Dan Burgin
