Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date
Current Odds
Odds Summary
December 31, 2027 leads at 52.5% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
Pricing implies a ceasefire meeting the 10-day continuity test is more likely by end-2027 than by end-2026, not an immediate halt.
The gap between 14.5% for December 31, 2026 and 48.5% for December 31, 2027 prices a long diplomatic runway.
What Could Reprice It
The Kremlin's in-principle November three-way talks could reset timelines if they occur and produce a ceasefire framework.
A return to Russia-Ukraine-U.S. negotiations would directly test whether diplomacy can convert into terms capable of supporting a sustained halt.
Where the Market May Be Weak
Aggregate liquidity and volume do not show executable depth in each underlying binary, so the displayed term structure may overstate consensus.
The page lists a December 31, 2026 close while displaying 2027 timeframes; rules point to separate underlying binaries, complicating comparison.
Counter-Signal
Russia's reported rejection of full and partial ceasefires, alongside continued attacks, is the clearest reason a 10-day halt may not materialize.
The EU's October sanctions package also reflects continued aggression and a policy posture consistent with a prolonged conflict.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Russia
- Scheduled deadline
- December 31, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds?
Polymarket reports Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds with December 31, 2027 at 52.5%, March 31, 2027 at 26.5%, December 31 at 12.5%, and October 31 at 0.9%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $2.94M volume, $460.87K liquidity, and $733.89K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 23, 2026, 21:22 UTC.
What could move the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market odds?
Pricing implies a ceasefire meeting the 10-day continuity test is more likely by end-2027 than by end-2026, not an immediate halt. The gap between 14.5% for December 31, 2026 and 48.5% for December 31, 2027 prices a long diplomatic runway. Catalysts to watch include Progress from three-way talks, Potential November three-way talks, and Underlying-market participation.
How does the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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