Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?
Current Odds
Odds Summary
December 31 leads at 5.5% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The low Yes prices imply little chance that Iran publicly agreed to surrender the stockpile before the rule’s already-past deadline.
This reads less as a forecast of new diplomacy than a residual claim that qualifying public evidence from before March 31, 2026 could emerge or be recognized.
What Could Reprice It
The key repricing event is provider clarification or settlement treatment of the March 2026 cutoff before the market’s January 1, 2027 close.
Because the stated qualifying date has passed, a rule interpretation, correction, or settlement action could matter more than a later diplomatic development.
Where the Market May Be Weak
The displayed future timeframes conflict with a resolution rule requiring agreement by March 31, 2026, making the prices hard to map to a live event.
The market remains open until January 2027, but the literal condition is historical. That mismatch is more consequential than activity measures because it affects what each Yes price represents.
Counter-Signal
IAEA uncertainty does not exclude a qualifying public agreement: the rule requires public assent, not IAEA verification of a completed uranium handover.
The IAEA’s lost continuity of knowledge makes technical confirmation difficult, but that is a higher bar than the market’s stated public-agreement test.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Scheduled deadline
- January 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Polymarket reports Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds with December 31 at 5.5% and October 31 at 1.2%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $18.28M volume, $171.52K liquidity, and $230.74K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 23, 2026, 02:22 UTC.
What could move the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market odds?
The low Yes prices imply little chance that Iran publicly agreed to surrender the stockpile before the rule’s already-past deadline. This reads less as a forecast of new diplomacy than a residual claim that qualifying public evidence from before March 31, 2026 could emerge or be recognized. Catalysts to watch include Evidence recognition or provider settlement, Polymarket rule clarification or settlement, and Resolution-rule interpretation.
How does the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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