Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?
Current Odds
Odds Summary
December 31 leads at 5.5% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The 7.5% December 31 Yes price implies a low chance that Iran will publicly agree to surrender its enriched-uranium stockpile by then.
That reading is weakened because the written criteria instead specify a March 31, 2026 deadline, which was already past on October 15, 2026.
What Could Reprice It
The main repricing trigger is a Polymarket clarification or correction of the resolution deadline, rather than a newly identified diplomatic event.
A rule update could establish whether the October 31 and December 31 prices represent valid underlying binary markets; no external future event is supplied.
Where the Market May Be Weak
The page pairs future-labeled outcomes with a rule requiring a public agreement by March 31, 2026, a date already past.
This temporal conflict prevents the displayed prices from cleanly functioning as forward probabilities and makes settlement interpretation the dominant limitation.
Counter-Signal
Under the written rule, No would prevail unless Iran had publicly agreed by the past March 31 deadline; later diplomacy would not qualify.
The December 31 price therefore may not reflect the chance of a future agreement unless Polymarket changes or corrects the stated criteria.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Scheduled deadline
- January 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Polymarket reports Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds with December 31 at 5.5% and October 31 at 1.2%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $18.28M volume, $162.28K liquidity, and $230.75K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 22, 2026, 21:42 UTC.
What could move the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market odds?
The 7.5% December 31 Yes price implies a low chance that Iran will publicly agree to surrender its enriched-uranium stockpile by then. That reading is weakened because the written criteria instead specify a March 31, 2026 deadline, which was already past on October 15, 2026. Catalysts to watch include Polymarket clarification or correction of the resolution deadline, A clarified settlement deadline or market-rule correction, and Resolution-rule clarification.
How does the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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